Newmont reports 105% increase in net income despite cost pressures
Comment of the Day

April 28 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Newmont reports 105% increase in net income despite cost pressures

This article by Dorothy Kosich for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
As Newmont reported a 105% increase in first-quarter net income and remains on track for ounces of gold production this year, CEO Richard O'Brien told analysts Tuesday the company is experiencing operating costs pressures "primarily driven by lower production volumes in Nevada, Peru and Ghana, and as a function of high cost underground production at Nevada and higher mill production at Yanacocha."

On a year-over-year basis, CIS increased from $431 to $480 an ounce. O'Brien reassured analysts that lower cost production from the new Boddington mine in Australia "should offset some of these operating costs as we ramp up the full production towards the end of the year."

"Despite these operating costs pressures, we continue to expect full year performance in line with our existing outlook."

Equity gold production was 1.3 million ounces during the first quarter, while copper production increased 143% to 90 million pounds, due to Phase V mining at the Batu Hijau operation in Indonesia. O'Brien advised the company continues to expect equity gold production ranging between 5.3 million and 5.5 million ounces this year.

Eoin Treacy's view Gold has sustained its move above $1000 since September which will have helped the earnings, if not the costs, of gold miners as demonstrated by the above article. The NYSE Arca Goldbugs Index pulled back rather sharply, having retested the 2008 high above 500. It found support in the region of the 200-day moving average from February and continues to trend higher. It pushed successfully above 450 today and a break of the progression of rising reaction lows would be required to limit scope for further upside.

Gold is receiving renewed 'safe haven' interest and moved to a new high for the year today; breaking upwards from the four-month range in the process. Compared to other investment vehicles, it is not overextended and looks competitive in the global beauty contest. A downward dynamic would now be required to question scope for a further upside. Here are some charts of the more interesting gold shares:

Barrick Gold also pulled back sharply having retested its high. It found support near C$35 and rallied impressively this week. A sustained move back below C$38 would be required to question potential for further upside. The US$ chart is a bit more consistent but has the same general pattern.

GoldCorp found support near C$35 in February and rallied back above the 200-day MA today. A sustained move back below C$39 would be needed to limit potential for further upside. Here is the US$ chart.

Newmont has been in a broad range since 2004 but it is now testing the upper side and a sustained move below $48 would be required to question scope for further upside.

IAM Gold found support in the region of the 200-day MA over the last couple of months and is now rallying away from it. A sustained move to new reaction lows, with decline below $12.90 would be required to question scope for further upside.

Eldorado Gold Corp and Randgold Resources share relatively similar patterns. Both had relatively shallow reactions and found support in the region of their MAs. They are now retesting their highs and sustained moves below their MAs would be required to question potential for successful upside breaks.

Alamos Gold broke upwards to new highs in mid-March and has been consolidating mostly above C$14 since. A downward dynamic would be required to check potential for further upside.

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