Newmont Profit Beats Analysts' Estimates as Gold Prices Climb
Comment of the Day

October 28 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Newmont Profit Beats Analysts' Estimates as Gold Prices Climb

This article by Liezel Hill for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Newmont Mining Corp., the largest U.S. gold producer, reported third-quarter profit that topped analysts' estimates after bullion prices rose to a record.

Net income fell 8.2 percent to $493 million, or 98 cents a share, from $537 million, or $1.07, a year earlier, Greenwood Village, Colorado-based Newmont said today in a statement.

Earnings excluding an impairment charge related to securities held by the company were $1.29 a share, beating the $1.24 average of 14 analysts' estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Sales rose 5.7 percent to $2.74 billion from $2.6 billion a year earlier.

Chief Executive Officer Richard O'Brien plans to spend about $7 billion to boost annual gold production by 35 percent to 7 million ounces by 2017, he told investors in April. Gold, which has risen for 10 straight years, averaged $1,705 in the third quarter, 39 percent more than a year earlier. The metal reached a record $1,923.70 an ounce on Sept. 6 in New York.

"I think they're starting to win people over," John Stephenson, who helps manage $2.7 billion at First Asset Management Inc. in Toronto and owns Newmont shares, said in an interview before the results were released. "I think they have come a long way by getting upfront with the dividend program, they've shown some leadership there."

Newmont, the second-biggest gold miner by production, said in April it would link its dividend to the gold price, and announced last month it was sweetening the payouts for quarters in which gold exceeds $1,700 an ounce. The company said on Oct. 26 it raised its quarterly dividend 17 percent to 35 cents, from 30 cents.

Eoin Treacy's view The NYSE Arca Goldbugs Index has been largely rangebound for much of the year while gold has been considerably more volatile. The gold price now looks more likely than not to have formed a medium-term low near $1550 which should be a positive for companies with un-hedged production. Newmont mining, by linking its dividend payment to higher prices, is making an explicit attempt to highlight the benefits of owning gold shares rather than physical metal.

Newmont Mining continues to consolidate mostly above $60 and a sustained move below that level would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

New Gold, Randgold Resources and Yamana Gold have some of the more attractive chart patterns in the Index. .

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