New-Fangled Love Songs
Comment of the Day

August 30 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

New-Fangled Love Songs

Thanks to a subscriber for this report by Bill Gross of Pimco which rhymes with our view. Here is a section:
In the U.S., strangely enough, matrimonial discord between rich and poor has led to lower, not higher, Treasury yields as approaching recessionary winds force the Fed and private investors to favor bonds. There are limits, however. Ten-year Treasuries at 2.25% are discounting a heap of trouble (none of it strangely enough due to its own credit standing), and neither investor nor borrower may emerge from this brouhaha unscathed. We prefer the "cleaner" dirty shirt countries of Canada, Australia, Mexico and Brazil, where higher yields and more pristine balance sheets prevail.

And what of China and its fling as mercantile dominatrix? Here to stay - get used to it, PIMCO would say, but at the same time a substantial currency revaluation would assist its image and economy in its new role as the global economy's economic locomotive. Consider investing, therefore, in non-dollar currencies that have strong trade ties with the Asian continent. Global equities? They're cheap - dividend yields are higher than bonds in many cases - yet if growth falters there may be more downside to come.

Eoin Treacy's view Fullermoney has long shown a preference for progressing economies which generally run surpluses, have competitive labour and strong economic growth profiles. These countries have been concentrated among the commodity producers and Asia's population centres for much of the last decade and this is unlikely to change during the next decade.

US 30-year Treasuries continues to hold above 135 and while they have lost momentum somewhat over the last month, a sustained move below that level would be required to confirm the return of supply in this region.

UK 10-year Gilts accelerated to a peak above 130 three weeks ago and have had perhaps the largest pullback among major bond markets since. They found at least short-term support today but will need to sustain a move to new high ground to question near-term top formation development.

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