“We might see a stronger withdrawal than the market is anticipating because it was a lot colder last week than people think,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “There's no end in sight to this weather. The market is just looking for an excuse to get through the $4 level.”

Eoin Treacy's view $4 has been a psychological Rubicon for natural gas for more than 18-months not least because a great deal of additional supply becomes economic above that level. A sustained move above $4 would suggest the supply glut which has been such a feature of the market since 2010 has been at least partially eroded and would set the scene for medium-term demand dominance.