My personal portfolio: USD/JPY and AJG longs rolled forward; crude oil, rice and wheat longs increased
Comment of the Day

September 15 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

My personal portfolio: USD/JPY and AJG longs rolled forward; crude oil, rice and wheat longs increased

David Fuller's view The first two are delayed reports as I have had time away from the office but the intention to roll forward had been mentioned.

After Baby Steps range trading USD/JPY with some modest initial success earlier this year I made a dog's dinner of this strategy by holding on in the belief that a long-term base was forming for the dollar against the yen and that the Japanese would have to weaken their currency. I could have only done this with a moderately sized position relative to capital for the exercise and I trade well within my capital allocated for a trade when not using stops. The bad news is that my remaining September USD/JPY longs, purchased between 6th May and 12th August at an average price of ¥90.98, were sold on automatic rollover at ¥84.08 on 10th September, when December positions were simultaneously purchased for my account at ¥84.07. Japan finally intervened today, resulting in a dramatic upside key day reversal and I also expect a weekly key when this Friday's trading has been completed.

Maintaining that a weaker yen would trigger a stock market rally by lagging Japan, I also allowed my losing long in the Atlantis Japan Growth Fund (weekly & daily) to be rolled forward. My September AJG long was sold at 941.815 on 14th September against my purchase at 1127.8 on 1st April, and I simultaneously purchased a December contract at 949.3. I won't make a habit of this because the spreads are wide.

During a pullback in the price of crude oil today, and with an in-the-money stop on my earlier purchase, I doubled my long position, paying $76.645 for a November contract this time.

I also doubled my rough rice long today, paying $12.115 for another November position.

Stop Press: Following a discussion of crop prospects I increased my wheat long by 50%, paying $7.286 for another December position.

These prices include all spread-bet dealing costs.

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