My personal portfolio: Silver long stop triggered; gold longs rolled forward
Comment of the Day

January 28 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

My personal portfolio: Silver long stop triggered; gold longs rolled forward

David Fuller's view In silver, one of my March longs was stopped out this morning at $30.950, against my purchase at $30.765 on 10th January. Together with another slightly in the money stop reported last Friday, this has halved my silver longs. This evening, on seeing that silver is now somewhat oversold after a 3-day drop, I bought back at a lower level one of the two positions that were stopped out recently, paying $30.82 for the March contract.

In gold, my expiring February longs were rolled forward today. Consequently, my February longs were sold at $1656.98 against an embarrassingly high average purchase cost of $1747.58, mostly because I kept rolling forward and adding to my longs opened during the summer. With hindsight I should have closed them out at the higher side of the trading range dating back to October 2011, but I became overconfident following the sharp rally back towards $1800 in August and September 2012. I will give gold more time to rally within this this lengthy range, knowing that it is completing the 17th month of what I think is another corrective and recovery phase, albeit preceded by a longer and stronger advance. Following earlier reactions in response to upward accelerations within this secular bull market, these pauses have been lengthy before the old high was retested and cleared, as you can see on this chart, although the 2006-2007 and 2008-2009 pauses were of shorter duration.

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