My personal portfolio
Comment of the Day

August 07 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

My personal portfolio

Once more unto the breach; Silver long reopened

David Fuller's view When trading, anticipating a breakout from a range can be very rewarding if the timing is correct. Unfortunately, unless one's timing is immaculate, which it seldom is, the trades can be frustrating and expensive, as I can testify, not least in the recent market environment. I do think precious metals are in a support building phase, currently underpinned by low interest rates and all the quantitative easing that is occurring, prior to a seasonal rally. However, this hypothesis has yet to be proven by a strong recovery, as I mention in most Audios.

I already hold gold (weekly & daily) which is arguably the current leader given some upward dynamics within the present range and the slightly rising lows, suggesting that it is under accumulation. Silver (weekly & daily) has also begun to show gradually higher lows within its current range, so I reopened a long, paying $28.015, including spread-bet dealing costs, for a September position.

Platinum (weekly & daily) is arguably the cheapest precious metal, judging from its lowest price relative to gold for at least 25 years. Clearly, platinum does not have the same monetary role as gold - central banks hold gold but very little if any platinum. Nevertheless, platinum has sold at more than twice the price of gold on three occasions in the previous decade, primarily on supply scares.

My strategy is to hold all three precious metals, and possibly also palladium (weekly & daily), during the next medium-term uptrend for these markets. Given clear evidence of trending, I will also leverage up behind in-the-money stops on my initial positions. Meanwhile, judging from recent performance we are still only one more HFT 'risk-off' phase from seeing retests of this year's lower boundaries for precious metals.

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