My personal portfolio:
Comment of the Day

April 21 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

My personal portfolio:

USD/JPY longs stopped out; an initial unit repurchased; CAD/JPY longs opened, yesterday's additional gold futures purchase stopped out

David Fuller's view I maintain that the yen is too strong for Japan's wellbeing. Currently, the USD may be becoming too weak for the USA's wellbeing. The consequence is that the USD has been even weaker than the yen over the last 11 days, despite the overhanging risk of further intervention by G-7 central banks. My Baby Steps levels for taking some USD/JPY profits were too optimistic, under the circumstances, and I was stopped out at ¥82.00 this morning against my rollover purchases at ¥81.825 on 11th March, plus an additional purchase at ¥80.917 on 18th March. These prices include all spread-bet dealing costs.

I opened initial Baby Steps longs this afternoon in CAD/JPY, paying ¥86.332, ¥86.088 and ¥85.795 for the June position, including spread-bet costs of ¥0.16. I then reopened a USD/JPY long, paying ¥81.762 for a June stake, including spread-bet dealing costs of ¥0.12.

Clearly, a number of other forex traders have been stopped out of yen shorts as well. This is rapidly recreating a short-term oversold condition (overbought yen) and should be followed by a rebound in coming weeks. That would be sharp if accompanied by another announcement of G-7 intervention, although one cannot count on this action.

On seeing further evidence of silver's upward acceleration (weekly & daily) - always an ending signal of unspecified duration and it reached $46.27 around noon BST - I became nervous and placed a breakeven stop on yesterday's additional gold (weekly & daily) purchase. This was triggered a couple of hours later, resulting in a sale of a June position at $1503 against yesterday's purchase at $1502.4, reducing my overall position by 20%. These prices include spread-bet dealing costs of 0.60¢

This week's larger advance to date by silver is clearly climactic. Consequently, we are very close to a medium-term peak which could occur any day now and probably within the next two weeks. With climactic accelerations, the strongest market in the world usually becomes the biggest wimp the day after demand is exhausted. That signal, when it occurs, will be dramatic and therefore likely to trigger corrections for gold and many other commodities.


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