David Fuller's view Seven to ten years ago I did not mind taking what some may have regarded as bigger trading risks in precious metals, because prices were low by any measure and the secular recovery had only just begun. In other words, the environment did not feel risky to me. A decade later, I have felt much more cautious in recent months, not because I did not expect the bull market to continue, but because I am always more concerned about risk in an increasingly crowded trade.

With precious metals recording decent gains in December, including new highs for the year for palladium and silver, I opted to use breakeven stops on my platinum and palladium positions, in hope that a bigger momentum move might occur. It did not, as we have seen over the last two days and my stops were triggered early this morning, probably around 1:39am (GMT) for platinum and a little later with palladium, judging from Bloomberg's tick charts and my statements. With hindsight, I should have taken some of the profits on strength as short-term indicators became overbought. I do not like letting paper profits slip away but that is better than a net loss.

For the record, my 23rd December rollover longs at $1736.7 in April platinum were sold at $1735.8 today, due to slippage in thin trading conditions against my stop at $1739. This small loss was just exceeded by March palladium where I was stopped out at $755 against my purchase at $750.83 on 21st December. These prices include spread-bet dealing costs. I resisted the temptation to buy back $20 lower this afternoon because last month's short-term upside consistency has been checked for platinum and palladium has seen a very big advance.