My personal portfolio:
Comment of the Day

November 15 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

My personal portfolio:

Soybeans and two more T-Bond profits taken; a platinum stop triggered

David Fuller's view I was away on Friday but early in Asia's trading a sell-off in soybeans triggered an in-the-money sell stop at $13.120 on the 12th against my purchase at $12.854 on 8th November. I let too much of the profit slip away and should have sold earlier in the day when soybeans were strong but corn and wheat were weakening.

In a very bad decision I pulled some platinum stops at $1740 early last week, but left one in which was triggered at $1712 on the 12th, against my purchase at $1703.9 on 3rd November. This reduced my position by 19% and I am significantly underwater on 59% of that position. I remain a medium to longer term bull of platinum but not while the USD is rallying. Clearly the big hedge fund trade had been short USD and long commodities. It is being cut back sharply and this will create another opportunity, although perhaps not just yet. The USD may give us the best technical clue when we see evidence that this short-covering rally is ending.

Before leaving the office last Thursday I placed a target purchase order for US 30-year T-Bond futures and it would have been appropriate, in addition to symmetrical and in line with my Baby Steps sell-high-buy-low tactic, to have simultaneously placed an overhead sell order just beneath resistance evident on the chart. In the event, T-Bonds bounced before falling and reaching a short-covering limit order at 127.16 for the December contract early today, against my short sale at 131.93 on 4th November. This evening I bought back my remaining Dec short at 125.85 against my short sale at 134.608 on 27th August. I am now hoping for a bounce and have just asked IG to list the March 2011 contract as their December contract expires on 26th November.

Prices above include all spread-bet dealing costs.


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