My personal portfolio:
Comment of the Day

November 09 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

My personal portfolio:

platinum and corn long trades increased; wheat longs stopped out; a profit on T-Bond short; profit taken as palladium stops hit

David Fuller's view We are reaching an increasingly speculative stage in this game of making hay while the sun (metals) shine. I try to keep calm by focussing on money control via trailing stops on most of my positions, and by not fantasising about how high prices might soar before I am shaken out of long positions. That can be a distraction and waste of energy. I know that I won't sell at the top, wherever that is, and that I will give up a portion of paper profits when or where the tide turns, but at least I should have profits on my net precious metals and grain positions. Early this afternoon I bought more platinum and corn shortly after the opening. I paid $1791.9 for more January platinum, increasing my position by just below 24 percent. I certainly could have done better in corn, where I paid $5.979 for my latest December contract purchase, increasing my overall position by 25 percent. The subsequent key day reversal is a concern, particularly if there is downside follow through on Wednesday.

This afternoon I also placed in the money stops on my two wheat longs. In a volatile evening session these were stopped out at $7.35 and $7.31 against my ill-timed purchases at $7.304 and $7.286 on 3rd and 15th September, respectively.

This evening, on seeing US 30-year T-Bond futures break downwards, I invoked my Baby Steps short strategy of sell-high-buy-low, and covered my most recent short. I bought the decimalised December T-Bond contract at 129.00 against my short sale at 131.00 on 5th November. The downward break is clearly bearish, if maintained, but I still have two-thirds of my short position and can sell again in the event of any steadying. While the big profits are usually made by riding trends, markets spend more time ranging than trending. At this early stage of what I expect will be a major trend change for T-Bonds, with yields base building and prices topping out, I prefer to stay with my Baby Steps range trading strategy.

I wrote that opening paragraph in this section before all the commodity pandemonium which I have assessed in the Audio.

Stop Press: The CME raised the margin requirement on silver by 30 percent this afternoon. I had not realised this when I recorded the Audio but it does not change my thoughts.

A late casualty was my palladium position which was stopped out. I am contesting the price which I think should have been $680 but was filled at $675 against my purchases at $592.2 and $647.35 on 13th October and 3rd November, respectively. I will report any adjustment in that closing price on Wednesday.

Prices above include spread-bet dealing costs.

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