Musings from the Oil Patch June 30th 2020
Comment of the Day

July 01 2020

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Musings from the Oil Patch June 30th 2020

Thanks to a subscriber for this report by Allen Brooks for PPHB. Here is a section on Chinese and Indian coal demand:

India has auctioned 41 coal mines with 17 billion tons of geological coal reserves to enable private companies to commence commercial extraction. All of these mines are largely fully-explored, enabling them to come into production quickly. Four of the mines will be dedicating their coal for use by steel-making plants. The 41 mines represent both large and small mines with peak-rated capacities (PRC) of 0.5 to 40.0 million tons annually (mmt/y). These mines will provide a total PRC of 225 mmt/y when in operation. Given the sizes and locational challenges of some of the mines, we can expect to see more pictures of women hauling baskets of lump coal from the mine to shipment points. This is one way to help the nation’s employment situation.

The increased use of coal is designed to help India deal with its economic challenges, of which employment is one aspect. However, lowering, or at least keeping stable, the cost of energy is also crucial for political peace. The impact on India’s climate goals remains an open question. The long-term outlook for India’s energy mix suggests that fossil fuels will remain the dominant supplier. Even if coal, which accounted for 56% of India’s energy in 2017, were to fall below 50%, and all of that decline went to renewables, it would only triple its contribution – rising from 3% to 9%. Making further gains in reducing carbon emissions will become a huge challenge for government policymakers.

The China story has become more interesting, given that it has become the largest emitter of carbon dioxide and other pollutants, while still paying lip-service to its environmental commitments to the 2015 Paris Climate Accord. China still consumes more than half the world’s coal, and that seems likely to remain the condition for a while, despite the large push for renewable power.

China recently approved two new coal mines with a combined output of 3.6 mmt/y, at a cost of $566 million (4 billion yuan). Those two new mines will have nearly as much output as China’s current coal production, which in 2019 was 3.75 mmt/y. Behind approving the new mines is the government’s plan for shutting down small and outdated mines in favor of larger ones located in coal-rich provinces.

Eoin Treacy's view

Here is a link to the full report.

Energy security is a major consideration for every consuming nation. Neither India nor China have any hope of achieving energy independence any time soon. The virtue signalling China, in particular, engages in at climate conferences contrasts starkly with the reality on the ground. China is building more coal fired power stations all over the world than ever.

The challenge is that while demand for coal is set to rise from emerging markets is in terminal decline in the developed markets. That has contributed to a large number of companies disappearing and the remainder are not performing very well. The sector’s best stocks focus on metallurgical coal for the steel industry and even they have sold off aggressively.

The one thing that curbs pollution faster than any other factor is outsized economic growth. When emerging countries are willing partners in global growth everyone has an incentive to foster innovation and productivity. The problem today is China has clearly signalled it is in no mood for compromise and wishes everyone else to fall into its way of thinking. That has pretty much closed the door on technology transfers which is not beneficial for combatting pollution.

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