Midwest Weather Expected To Be Hot And Dry Through July
Comment of the Day

July 19 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Midwest Weather Expected To Be Hot And Dry Through July

Latest reports, including this one from Bloomberg, continue to forecast hot weather and too little rain. Here is the opening:
The Midwest will probably remain dry through the end of the month and the heat that has been wilting crops may persist until September.

Temperatures in the Great Plains and Midwest are expected to remain 5 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit above normal (2.8 to 3.9 Celsius) through the end of July, according to MDA EarthSat Weather in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

The company's 30- to 60-day outlook calls for above-normal temperatures to grip the center of the U.S. through September.
"The pattern is driven by persistence, with the heat of the first two months of summer continuing into August," MDA's forecast showed.

Hot, dry conditions in the Midwest have left corn and soybean fields in the worst shape since 1988 as the most severe U.S. drought since 1956 continues. Soybeans reached a record high $16.5125 a bushel today on the Chicago Board of Trade, surpassing the previous peak of $16.3675 on July 3, 2008.

David Fuller's view Corn (weekly & daily) backed off from psychological and lateral resistance at $8 today but this is an insufficient downward dynamic to suggest more than temporary resistance. Soybeans (weekly & daily) have pushed above their 2008 high and wheat (weekly & daily) has exceeded its 2011 high this week. All three look overextended but have yet to loose momentum in a market that has been fundamentally driven.

This can only mean higher grocery prices for consumers later this year and next year as corn, soybeans and wheat are in so many products on supermarket shelves.



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