Mexico's Economy Surprises With Fastest Expansion in Over a Year
Comment of the Day

October 25 2022

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Mexico's Economy Surprises With Fastest Expansion in Over a Year

This article for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The result was “solid” and leaves Mexico’s economic growth at a pace of 2.2% for the year, according to Alberto Ramos, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s chief Latin America economist. 

“The economy still has room to grow, and we expect it to expand in coming quarters supported by firm terms of trade and further normalization of activity among a number of still lagging sectors, particularly services,” he wrote in a research note Friday. 

Eoin Treacy's view

Not only is China slowing down, but its relationship with the biggest buyers of its exports is deteriorating. Large global companies are not making decisions about how much manufacturing they want to do in China. Within the next decade, manufacturing in China by foreigners will focus on the domestic market while exports are likely to face greater competition from other economies.

That is creating opportunities for localization plays. Mexico is leveraging its proximity to the USA to position itself to benefit from this trend. Signing LNG export deals with Germany, nationalising the lithium sector and committing to building battery factories all point toward Mexico attempting to benefit from unfolding trends.

The currency is currently firming versus the Dollar. The iShares Mexico ETF rallied to break a seven-year downtrend in 2021 and has been ranging since. However, it is now firming.

The Brazilian runoff election is this weekend. Regardless of who wins, inflation has peaked in Brazil. That’s a set up for a recovery, all other factors being equal.

India, with its massive young population, is the best candidate globally to become a major low cost manufacturing destination. The Aberdeen New India Trust has been ranging above 500p for 18 months and the upside can continue to be given the benefit of the doubt provided that level holds.

The iShares Indonesia ETF has been ranging below $50 for the more than a year but a sequence of higher reaction lows is evident.

Back to top

You need to be logged in to comment.

New members registration