Mattel Replaces CEO as Sales Slump Extends to Five Quarters
Comment of the Day

January 26 2015

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Mattel Replaces CEO as Sales Slump Extends to Five Quarters

This article by Matt Townsend for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

Mattel has been struggling with sluggish sales of Barbie and Fisher-Price, hurt by kids spending more time playing on electronic devices. In another blow, the company is losing its license for Walt Disney Co.’s Frozen dolls to Hasbro Inc. in 2016.

?“It’s sort of shocking, but not surprising,” said Jaime Katz, an analyst at Morningstar Inc. in Chicago. “The performance of the brand has been pretty dire.”

The shares tumbled as much 11 percent to $24.88 on Monday morning before paring their losses. They were trading at $26.72, down 4.7 percent, as of 9:54 a.m. in New York. The stock had dropped 9.4 percent this year through the end of last week.

Mattel was scheduled to report results on Jan. 30, making today’s ouster of Stockton look like a swift decision by the board, Katz said. Directors were probably getting pressured by investors to make a change and another lackluster quarter sealed Stockton’s fate, she said.

Eoin Treacy's view

The evolution of online games from consoles to apps and Minecraft represents a threat to companies like Mattel and a challenge they have been struggling to overcome. The loss of the contract to supply Disney’s Frozen doll franchise was a major blow and contributed to Mattel’s consistent decline to date. 

Following the release of preliminary results and the removal of its CEO the share (Est P/E 14.08, DY5.66%) dropped to test the $25 area but bounced to recoup most of the decline. If this level is to be more than a temporary area of support, it will have to hold on the next pullback and the medium-term progression of lower rally highs, currently near $32 will have to be broken. 

If I look around my daughter’s room they have more Ever After High and Monster High Dolls than any other franchise so while they are not interested in Barbie, Mattel is probably getting more sales from their other products than before. 

My second daughter is the doll lover and is a big fan of the new line of Equestria girl dolls which for the uninitiated are an updated version of my little pony from about 30 years ago. Hasbro’s (Est P/E 17.37, DY 3.13%) marketing has been impressive with a full length movie released on YouTube for free ahead of the release of the dolls. The share continues to hold a progression of higher reaction lows and is currently rallying from the most recent retest.   

Activision Blizzard (Est P/E 15.21, DY 0.96%) headed the list of requests on my eldest daughter’s Christmas list with Skylanders Trap Team. The share found support two weeks ago in the region of the October low and a sustained move below $18 would be required to question current scope for additional upside. 

Microsoft purchased Minecraft from its founders in September for $2.5 billion to gain a foothold in what is one of the biggest gaming phenomena at present. Exploring, creating and engaging in rudimentary programming as well as more complex “mods” has attracted a lot of parents to participate with the their children and Minecraft has been all my eldest daughter talked about for at least six months. Microsoft broke out of a decade long range in late 2013 and remains in a consistent uptrend.  

 

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