I think veteran subscribers will recognise a number of the themes I have been discussing in recent big picture long-term audios in this podcast.
In particular I have sympathy with the view that the rise of populism, xenophobia, nationalism and even racism are not individual tropes but symptomatic of the broader revolt against the status quo which has been hollowing out the middle classes for decades.
I also believe that we are in the latter stages of a medium-term bull market and have to be prepared for the possibility that acceleration will occur in the shares of the leaders in this cycle, primarily in the technology sector.
The trajectory of the yield curve spread suggests that a recession is likely at some point in 2019 which leaves ample potential both for the market to rise, for commodities to play catch up and for the bond market to represent the next epicentre of risk.
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