Martin Spring's On Target
Comment of the Day

January 11 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Martin Spring's On Target

My thanks to this experienced commentator for his latest monthly letter, always a varied and interesting read and includes views from his many contacts. Here is a brief sample, close to my heart, from a section on John Templeton's 12 rules for investment success
2. Buy low. So simple in concept, so difficult in execution. When prices are high, a lot of investors are buying a lot of stocks. Prices are low when demand is low. Investors have pulled back, people are discouraged and pessimistic. But if you buy the same securities everyone else is buying, you'll have the same results as everyone else.

David Fuller's view I have long felt that the best time to buy is following a stock market crash. These do not occur all that often but this century has been generous; we saw two major crashes in the first 8 years.

Unfortunately, many investors, and not just the most inexperienced, do the opposite because they or their clients in a fund are still focussing on factors which caused the crash.

Big crashes discount investors' worst fears. These are seldom realised, not least because fearful investors exaggerate problems, as do hopeful short sellers. Concerned monetary authorities provide excess liquidity following a crash, and politicians are galvanised into actions to prevent the escalating disasters feared. Big crashes provide many of the best valuations, and because so many people have sold, the recovery traffic tends to be one-way.

Back to top