Martin Spring's On Target
Comment of the Day

November 11 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Martin Spring's On Target

My thanks to the author for his interesting and varied letter. Here is a brief sample on "Going Where the Growth Will Be:
For the long term, equities look a much better choice than bonds, and among equities, those of companies in Asian and other growth economies would seem to offer the best prospects.

They are cheaper, they have better balance sheets and they offer faster growth, yet their shares have underperformed recently, says the investment bank CLSA Asia-Pacific. They have been trading at discounts to their ten- and 15-year averages for their price-to-earnings and price-to-book-value ratios.

Its head of economic research Eric Fishwick says that measuring Asian nations using 15 criteria for stress shows all of them to comfortably exceed a level suggesting significant risk. "Balance sheets are still very strong and no economies suffer overwhelming internal or external imbalances. In particular, foreign liabilities are small and forex reserves are substantial."

Even China "performs strongly," getting a stress-test pass rating for 12 of the 15 criteria. Its balance sheets "remain strong even when the understatement of leverage and monetary variables because of shadow banking are taken into account."

Fishwick says Asia "will be best placed to exploit the next cyclical upturn when it happens."

Its balance sheets justify regarding the region as a safe haven. "Panic sell-offs in crisis-resilient economies generate buying opportunities that investors who are able to take the long view can exploit."

The bank has identified several dozen yield plays with offering rates of dividend payment more than twice as much as the interest yield on ten-year US Treasury bonds. Here are some examples of companies that have sustained/increased their dividends since 2008 and are expected to raise their dividends further:

David Fuller's view Don't miss the list of 10 high-yielding Asian shares from Hong Kong, Indonesia, Singapore and Taiwan.

Martin Spring's main feature is on "Start Your Own Business… and Succeed." Plenty of other interesting topics are discussed in this issue.

Back to top