Market outlook
Comment of the Day

May 17 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Market outlook

Climactic selling or is this the cyclical bull trend unraveling?

David Fuller's view I was planning to do a lengthy chart review today but have delayed it a little longer as I ponder an answer to my question above. I have also discussed this in the Audio, in somewhat greater detail than I can cover quickly in written copy but here are some of the salient points, as I see it.

Global stock markets became overbought in mid-April, so they were vulnerable to a reaction as mentioned at the time. They were then hit sequentially with the SEC's indictment of Goldman Sachs for "fraudulent misconduct", the more serious issue of Southern Europe's spiraling government bond yields and Wall Street's sudden and mysterious meltdown on May 6th.

This triple waterfall of events undermined confidence and sent investors scrambling out of stock markets and most commodities, and into safety bunker positions in USD, Treasuries and gold. The selling in stock markets and commodities has done more technical damage than the previous correction which ended in early February. It also looks at least temporarily climactic but if the cyclical uptrends for stock markets and industrial commodities are to be resumed anytime soon, this is now for the bulls to prove.

Wall Street's action (S&P weekly & daily) is likely to provide the most conclusive answers.

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