Manufactured Goods Lead Surge in Indian Exports
Comment of the Day

July 28 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Manufactured Goods Lead Surge in Indian Exports

Here is the opening from another excellent, informative article on India, written by Vikas Bajaj for The New York Times:
PUNE, India - When Ranjit Date returned to India 20 years ago after earning a doctorate in robotics from an American university, he hoped to help automate factory assembly lines in his home country.

His company, Precision Automation and Robotics India, has done that. But more recently it has also begun selling robots to Western manufacturers like Caterpillar, Ford and Chrysler. This year, in fact, a third of Precision Automation's sales will come from exports, up from almost nothing five years ago.

Mr. Date's company is emblematic of a recent surge in exports of engineered and other sophisticated goods from India - a country perhaps better known for exports of skilled services like software outsourcing.

But in fact, Indian exports of goods are now nearly double exports of services, growing 37.5 percent, to $245.9 billion, in the 12 months that ended in March. Leading the way are high-value products like industrial machinery, automobiles and car parts, and refined petroleum products.

Indian exports are following a different path from that taken by other Asian countries like Japan, Korea and China. Those countries started by exporting products like garments and toys made by large numbers of low-paid, low-skilled workers, before moving to more sophisticated products like cars and industrial machinery.

India has largely skipped the first step and gone straight to producing capital-intensive items that require skilled workers but not necessarily many of them. Rather than pursue the traditional developing-country model of exports, India aspires to eventually achieve something more like Germany's mix of industrial goods for the global market - even if India has a long way to go before approaching Germany's $1.3 trillion in annual exports.

David Fuller's view It is easy to overlook India's comparatively recent and increasing economic success stories, given the focus on perennial problems including poverty, corruption, bureaucracy and inadequate infrastructure.

From my perspective, and having seen a number of Asian economies develop at astonishing speed throughout my career to date, India is a tremendously exciting investment prospect for long-term investors.

It could be the best of all given the very large talent pool of Indians, both within and outside the country. Noted for their mercantilism, Indians are also leading contributors to the sciences. They bring a wealth of skills, experience and increasingly, developmental capital to India's economy.

In contrast to some other Asian countries, India's entrepreneurs are leading (some would say dragging) the government forward. Crucially, they are not dependent on political whims and favours from an all-powerful ruling party.

Veteran subscribers have seen the strong performance of India's stock market since 2003 (monthly, weekly & daily), in which many of you have also participated. There is little chance of that being repeated while the Reserve Bank of India is still raising interest rates to fight inflation. In fact, the market could wilt temporarily in the event of further rate hikes and / or current geopolitical and economic concerns.

I will not be selling any of my own investments in India in anticipation of a further pullback. The best time to do that, if one is inclined to, is during an overextension relative to a rising 200-day moving average, as I have mentioned before. However, I will be tempted to increase my investments in India should a further setback occur, probably favouring Aberdeen's New India Investment Trust (NII LN).

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