The U.S. economy is slowing as headwinds mount and tailwinds fade
The labor market is tight but is beginning to lose momentum, a clear late-cycle signal
Our research continues to point to a recession beginning in H1 2020
The next recession could be prolonged due to limited policy space at home and overseas
A looming recession means reducing risk, upgrading credit quality and extending duration
A link to the fullr report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
For a recession to begin at the beginning of 2020 growth would have to be negative in this quarter. That’s a big ask in my opinion. The one thing we know about the inversion of the yield curve spread is it has a long lead time. On the last two occasions it offered an 18-month lead indicator of trouble in the economy. That suggests we should probably be looking at after the US Presidential Election rather than before it for a source of strife. However, we will need to be guided by the price action.