LNG Surges as Japan Vies With China, Exxon's Shipments Grow
"In the high-case scenario, U.S. shale gas could provide an exportable surplus by 2020," Stuart Traver, a consultant for the company in Singapore, said in the presentation. Shale gas accounted for approximately 20 percent of total U.S. production in 2010.
In fracking, producers force chemically treated water into underground shale wells to break up rock and let gas flow. About 84 trillion cubic feet of undiscovered, technically recoverable gas lie in the Marcellus Shale under New York and seven other states, the U.S. Geological Survey said Aug. 23. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is studying the effects of fracking because opponents say it's a threat to drinking water.
Qatar and producers such as Australia, Malaysia and Indonesia are competing to satisfy demand for LNG from China and India, the world's fastest-growing major economies. China's imports rose 27 percent to 5.2 million tons in the first half of 2011 from a year earlier and reached a record in July, according to customs data.
Eoin Treacy's view
Natural gas is gaining increasing popularity among Asian consumers as their
standard of living increases. Its ease of use, price, cleanliness compared to
coal or oil, availability and security make it an attractive alternative. Japan's
tsunami and the resulting questioning of nuclear energy's viability for such
an earthquake prone country has resulted in a leap in demand. Nevertheless,
current fears about a global economic slowdown have weighed on the sector.
Qatar
has been the most notable exporter as it brings its massive resource base to
market. A number of major oil companies such as Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch
Shell now produce more gas than oil on an energy equivalency basis. Infrastructure
development across Asia remains a priority and the long-term outlook for this
fuel looks attractive.
At present
there is no global market for natural gas. The regional nature of the market
has created arbitrage opportunities between the supply dominated North American
trading environment and the demand dominated Asian environment. A number of
companies in the USA are redesigning LNG import terminals so they can export
this valuable fuel.
Cheniere
Energy Partnership is the parent company of Cheniere Energy. Neither has been
immune from the recent selling pressure but the former has an annual yield of
11.64%. It has paid out 42.5¢ on a quarterly basis since 2007. The Partnership
remains in a medium-term downtrend and has encountered resistance in the region
of the 200-day MA since March. A sustained move above $17.50 would be required
to suggest demand is beginning to return to medium-term dominance. The share
broke out of its two-year base in November 2010 but encountered resistance near
$10 and has returned to the lower side of what appears to be a first step above
the base. A sustained move below $6 would be required to question that hypothesis.
Among
LNG tanker companies, Belgium listed Exmar
has underperformed; not least because it cut its interim dividend in August.
It failed to sustain the breakout from the more than yearlong base in March,
fell below the 200-day MA in July and has pulled back below the 2009 and 2010
lows near €4.80. The share has paused in the region of €4 but a clear
upward dynamic will be required to suggest demand is returning in this area.
Golar
LNG had become quite overextended before pulling back sharply in August.
It found support in the region of the 200-day MA and continues to hold above
it. A break in the short-term progression of higher reaction lows, currently
near NOK140, would be required to question potential for some additional higher
to lateral ranging.
Teekay
LNG Partners has a solid record of dividend payments and currently yields
7.62%. In a pattern common to a number of energy related Master Limited Partnerships
the share lost momentum from March and has since posted a progression of lower
rally highs. It encountered resistance in the region of the 200-day MA in August
and a sustained move above $35 is now required to question the medium-term supply
dominated environment.