Lilly Applies for Alzheimer's Drug Approval on Trial Data
Comment of the Day

July 18 2023

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Lilly Applies for Alzheimer's Drug Approval on Trial Data

This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:

That sets the stage for a potential head-to-head competition between Lilly and Eisai, along with its partner Biogen Inc., for leadership in a market expected to rise to billions of dollars as more patients with early Alzheimer’s gravitate to the idea of preventing the loss of memories and brain function. While both drugs’ use may be held back by cost,  side effects and moderate effectiveness, experts hope they’ll
pave the way to more powerful successors.

Eoin Treacy's view

I spent every chance I got in my 20s diving with sharks, so I don’t scare easily. The one thing I am afraid of is losing my mental capacity. Several relations on my mother’s side of the family have suffered from the disease.

My grandmother stopped taking her blood pressure medication, as soon as she felt her mind go. She was a proud woman and decided to let nature take its course rather than be doomed to an uncertain existence as a vegetable.

It stands to reason that anyone who has witnessed how Alzheimer’s steals pieces of the mind in a relentless manner, will be in the market for anything that might slow the disease’s progression.  

Eli Lilly has been on fire over the last 18 months with two blockbuster products hitting the market. The fact the price did not improve on the above news suggests the good news is largely priced in, at least until earnings expectations are realised. There is scope for a reversion towards the trend mean but a sustained move below $400 would be required to question the consistency of the trend.

Both Eisai and Biogen continue to range in a volatile manner. 

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