KFC Bet on Africa Middle Class Draws Wal-Mart Seeking Customers
Comment of the Day

May 09 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

KFC Bet on Africa Middle Class Draws Wal-Mart Seeking Customers

This article by Sarah McGregor and Andres R. Martinez for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Teddy Muthusi goes to Kentucky Fried Chicken in Kenya's capital, Nairobi, for more than just fried food: it's a status symbol.

Muthusi gladly spends 1,870 shillings ($22), a quarter of the national monthly minimum wage, to treat his girlfriend at the country's first U.S.-based fast-food company's outlet that opened in August. He can afford what many can't. About 45 percent of Kenya's population live on less than $1.25 a day, according to the World Bank.

“I'm willing to fork out more because it's cool, it's trendy, it's a great place to be seen, and the food is good,” Muthusi, a 36-year-old creative manager at Easy FM radio station said in an interview on April 20, raising his voice above the pop music blaring through speakers. “Kenyans have that feeling if you can eat at KFC, you've made it.”

Muthusi is one of the upwardly-mobile, young and growing middle class of consumers in Africa that retailers including YUM! Brands Inc.'s KFC are targeting to compensate for slower growth in developed markets. Household spending is set to expand 63 percent to $1.4 trillion in Africa by 2020, home to the world's youngest and fastest-growing population, according to a 2010 report by McKinsey & Co.

Doug McMillon, chief executive officer of the international operations of Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, will join other executives seeking a foothold in Africa when the World Economic Forum's annual Africa meeting begins in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia's capital, today. LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA, the world's largest maker of luxury goods, Coca-Cola Co., the world's biggest soft-drinks producer, and PepsiCo Inc. will also be represented at the three-day conference.

Eoin Treacy's view The steps necessary to foster economic development represent a well-trodden path for Asian and some Latin American countries. Africa is still a deeply impoverished continent facing significant challenges. However it is no longer appropriate to view it as a backwater of economic growth. As with any other geographic area one needs to gauge investment opportunities on their individual merits. The boom in commodity demand growth over the last decade has acted as a catalyst for a number of African countries. Some are now participating in the global consumer boom. Manufacturing, textiles in particular, is developing and a fledgling service sector is taking hold. Capital markets are still tiny in most of Africa but the number of funds offering access has increased. (Also see Comment of the Day on March 26 th and 27th).

The Autonomies sector continues to be a relative outperformer not least because of access to the growth of the global consumer sector. Yum Brands surged to new all-time highs by late April but now appears to have entered a period of consolidation and mean reversion. McDonalds has been pulling back since January and is now testing the region of the 200-day MA where it will need to find support if the consistency of the medium-term uptrend is to be sustained. Coca Cola broke out of a yearlong range a month ago and following an impressive advance now looks more likely that not to revert towards the mean. PepsiCo remains largely rangebound and encountered resistance near $67.50 again this week. Starbucks continues to unwind its overbought condition relative to the 200-day MA and will need to find support above or in the region of $50 if the medium-term uptrend is to continue to be given the benefit of the doubt.

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