Juniors with big, undeveloped gold deposits gettin' some love
Comment of the Day

August 28 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Juniors with big, undeveloped gold deposits gettin' some love

This informative article by Kip Keen for Mineweb may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
To name three: Iamgold bought Trelawney and its 6.9 million ounce gold deposit in Ontario for C$608 million, cash and shares. This equated to about $89 per ounce, mostly inferred. Then Yamana Gold bought Extorre Gold Mines and its Cerro Moro gold-silver project, which has 2.4 million ounce gold equivalent in resources, for C$414 million, mostly in cash. That translated to about C$173 per ounce gold equivalent. And on Monday of this week Inter-Citic, which owns a 4.4 million ounce gold deposit (about equal parts inferred and then measured and indicated) said it had supported a cash takeover for C$250 million from Western Mining. The implication was C$57 per ounce, the lowest of these three examples. Overall though, the numbers are reminiscent of 2011 when gold ounces sold for around C$90, on average. And more importantly, if you are breaking out the calculator to evaluate big gold deposits in the hands of juniors, the numbers satiate. Many gold deposits are trading for less, sometimes far less. In this difference investors can make their bets.

Eoin Treacy's view Earlier this year investors took fright at the cost of developing new gold supplies and junior miners in particular took the brunt of selling pressure. However, although a lack of free cash flow remains an issue for the gold mining sector as a whole, the drop in share prices for junior miners created a value proposition for those with the requisite knowledge to discern which were unfairly punished.

Since mines are diminishing assets by definition, major miners are always on the lookout for promising assets they might be able to acquire at the right price. As the above paragraph demonstrates, gold mining is another sector where M&A activity has picked up.

The Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF hit a medium-term low from mid-May and retested the $17 area in July. It has rallied to test the June peak over the last month and has unwound the majority of its oversold condition relative to the 200-day MA. A sustained move above the MA would confirm a return to demand dominance beyond the short-term. (Also see Comment of the Day on May 17th).

Of the constituents of the Index, Banro Corp is particularly noteworthy. It has held a progression of higher major reaction lows since 2009 and pushed back above the 200-day MA last week. A sustained move below C$4 would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for continued higher to lateral ranging. Torex Gold Resources is also noteworthy for its outperformance. The share found support in the region of C$1.50 from May and has been ranging with an upward bias, mostly below C$2 since June. A sustained move below C$1.75 would be required to question potential for a successful upward break.

Royal Gold is also particularly noteworthy. The share broke out of an almost yearlong range last week to hit a new all-time high. A clear downward dynamic would be required to check potential for additional upside. Franco Nevada currently yields 1.23% and has a strong record of increasing its dividend which it pays monthly. The share remains in a consistent medium-term uptrend and a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near $45, would be required to begin to question the consistency of the advance.

Of the shares mentioned in the above article, Detour Gold rallied impressively from the 2008 low but failed to hold the move to new highs in September last year. It pulled back and held a progression of lower rally highs until early August. A sustained move below $23.50 would now be required to question recovery potential. Prodigy Gold rallied last week to break its 8-month progression of lower rally highs and a clear downward dynamic would now be required to check current scope for additional upside.

Sabina Silver failed to sustain the downward break in July and formed an impressive upside weekly key reversal. It broke successfully back above $3 last week and while somewhat overbought in the very short term, a sustained move below S3 would be required to question recovery potential.

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