Jim O'Neill: America is not heading down Japan's route
Comment of the Day

November 16 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Jim O'Neill: America is not heading down Japan's route

This is a good column (may require subscription registration, PDF also provided) by the Goldman Sachs economist, published by the Financial Times. Comments following the online article are equally worth reading and contain plenty of disagreement. Here are Jim O'Neill's last two paragraphs:
The question is America really heading down Japan's route of slow growth? I think the answer is no. Not only does US productivity continue to impress, but virtually all the reliable lead and coincident indicators I trust, such as weekly job claims, continue to improve - with one exception, housing. Can you imagine if that turned around? The fall in house prices in recent years has been so sharp that affordability is back to the levels of the early 1990s. Comparisons between the US and Japan seem inappropriate.

I think this is how to square all these circles when it comes to Japan. The country is still recovering following the 2008 global financial crisis and the tsunami. Its equity market is cheap and attractive. But the Yen needs to weaken, which it will do as soon as markets realise America isn't going down Japan's path. Once that happens, perhaps Japanese investors will start to add - now high-yielding - European bonds to all those other emerging markets ones, also high-yielding, they seem so keen on.

David Fuller's view I hope he is right. I think he is right, but the evidence is inconclusive and plenty of other commentators have a more pessimistic view.

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