Is silver still a monetary metal? Perhaps not, but is that even relevant?
Comment of the Day

October 11 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Is silver still a monetary metal? Perhaps not, but is that even relevant?

This is a balanced article by Lawrence Williams for Mineweb which may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
As with almost any investment, perception is the real key to value growth - and silver is perceived to rank alongside gold as an ultimate store of value. It will thus almost certainly continue to move up and down with gold - but be more volatile in those movements and perhaps more vulnerable to a sharp take-down by powerful financial elements. If you are thus convinced that the gold price will continue on an upwards path as the global economy continues with its trials and tribulations, then silver will likely remain a great bet too with the basic potential for an even stronger upside. But beware the danger of the occasional very sharp fall along the upwards path.

Eoin Treacy's view David has long referred to silver as high-beta gold. The smaller, less liquid nature of the market has contributed to this phenomenon as well as the fact that prices are lower which facilitates greater participation by speculators. The Gold / Silver ratio hit a 19-year low, near 30, last year as silver prices tested $50 and subsequently doubled as silver halved. During silver's decline gold was fairly steady by comparison, within what has turned into a yearlong range.

Silver rallied impressively though August and early September and has paused over the last month below $36. This area has offered resistance on at least three occasions over the last year and while it has mostly consolidated above $35, silver will need to sustain a move above $36 to reaffirm medium-term demand dominance. Nothing has occurred to question scope for a successful upward break.

Silver miners fell abruptly with the silver price and came under additional pressure as the cost concerns associated with gold miners gained wider notoriety earlier this year. Since then, a number have exhibited patterns of renewed investor interest but a great deal of variability in performance remains evident.

While Fresnillo is no longer an S&P Europe 350 dividend aristocrat, it continues to yield 1.78%. The share has rallied to retest the 2000p area and while somewhat overbought in the very short term, a sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near 1650p, would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside. Interestingly while it underperformed the metal last year, it is now outperforming.

Elsewhere in the silver mining sector Silver Wheaton, Endeavour Silver and Coeur d'Alene Mines have paused in the region of previous areas of resistance and sustained moves below their respective 200-day MAs would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

MAG Silver outperformed by breaking an eighteen month progression of lower rally highs in September and while the likelihood of some consolidation has increased, the benefit of the doubt can continue to be given to the upside provided it holds above the $10 area. First Majestic also broke a medium-term progression of lower rally highs and has paused in the region of last year's peak over the last month. A sustained move below the MA, currently near $17.80, would be required to question potential for a successful upward break.

Fortuna Silver has pulled back to test the region of the 200-day MA where it has found at least short-term support. Silver Standard Resources has also pulled back to test its MA and will need to find support in this area if medium-term demand dominance is to be reasserted.

Hecla Mines and Pan American Silver both rallied to break 18-month downtrends in August and are now consolidating above their respective MAs. Both shares have significant recovery potential provided the metal price remains firm.

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