Investing in global megatrends: Stop digging for gold, sell shovels instead
Comment of the Day

October 08 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Investing in global megatrends: Stop digging for gold, sell shovels instead

Thanks to a subscriber for this heavyweight 236-page report from Deutsche Bank. The full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area but here is a section
The European companies with the highest share of sales to Asia are mostly from Industrial Goods & Services, Basic Resources, Personal Goods/Luxury Goods and Technology sectors (see Figure 305 for details). The top-ranked company DKSH has 97% sales exposure to Asia and derives only 3% of its sales from Europe. Dialog Semiconductor, CSR, Aixtron and ASML are the Technology companies among the top 10 European companies with the highest exposure to Asia. Also, the two large Mining players Vedanta Resources and BHP Billiton are among the top 10 European companies with exposure to Asia. For investors with a specific sector/country focus, Figure 306 and Figure 307 provide the top five companies by sales exposure to the Asia/Pacific region for each of the 19 Stoxx600 super-sectors and 16 major European countries, respectively.

3.2 Highest sales exposure to the Americas
The European companies with the highest share of sales to the Americas include Industrial Goods & Services, Healthcare, Food & Beverage and Media sectors (see Figure 308 for details). Healthcare companies with high sales share to the Americas include BTG plc. (87% of sales), Elan (74%) and Shire PLC (68%). Industrial Goods & Services companies with a high sales share to the Americas include Ashtead Group (83% of sales), Experian (69%) and MTU (66%). For investors with a specific sector/country focus, Figure 309 and Figure 310 provide the top five companies by sales exposure to the Americas for each of the 19 Stoxx600 super-sectors and 16 major European countries, respectively

3.3 Highest sales exposure outside of Europe
The European companies with significant share of sales from outside Europe in 2012 are given in Figure 311. Again, Industrial Goods & Services, Technology and Healthcare companies dominate. As many as four Technology companies (CSR, ASML, Aixtron and Dialog Semiconductor) feature in the top 10 companies with significant sales exposure outside Europe. For investors with a specific sector/country focus, Figure 312 and Figure 313 list the top five companies with highest sales exposure outside of Europe for each of the 19 Stoxx600 super-sectors and 16 major European countries, respectively.

Highest positive and negative changes in the absolute level year-on-year
Companies that increased their sales exposure outside Europe the most from 2011 to 2012 are given in Figure 314. Industrial Goods & Services companies increased their sales share outside of Europe the most with 8 companies in the top 25 list, followed by Oil & Gas and Healthcare companies. Large caps on this top 10 list include Aggreko and Kering

Eoin Treacy's view This report helps to highlight the extent to which companies are outgrowing their respective domestic markets, which is a point we have emphasised at Fullermoney through our Autonomies theme for several years. Subscribers interested in this way of viewing markets are likely to find value in the numerous tables of companies posted.

Mario Draghi is using every opportunity to reiterate that the ECB is willing to do whatever is necessary to ensure the survival of the banking sector, the currency and the smooth operation of the economy. Therefore with the Eurozone economy back on a modest growth trajectory, the direst predictions have been proved wrong. As a result, Europe is likely to pose less of a headwind for its globally oriented companies.

Some of the more interesting chart patterns include:

Swiss listed ABB is a leader in the robotics sector. The share has been ranging with a mild upward bias for much of the last year and continues to find support in the region of the 200-day MA. It is currently pulling back to test that region but a sustained move below it would be required to question the medium-term upward bias.

Siemens, one of the world’s largest and most diversified engineering companies, broke out to new two-year highs a month ago and continues to consolidate the advance.

Diageo, one of the world’s largest brewers and an S&P Europe 350 Dividend Aristocrat, has been consolidating since April and has returned to test the region of the 200-day MA.

Sanofi, one of Europe’s larger pharmaceutical companies, has pulled back from a wide overextension relative to the 200-day MA to retest the region of the trend mean.

Volkswagen has also returned to test the region of the 200-day MA and found at least short-term support.

ASML, EADS, Continental and Safran have all become somewhat overextended relative to their respective trend means and are becoming increasingly susceptible to mean reversion.

John Wood Group on the other hand has returned to test the lower side of its yearlong range and a clear upward dynamic will be required to question top formation development.

MTU has been ranging below the 200-day for the last three months and will need to sustain a move back above it to suggest a return to medium-term demand dominance.

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