David Fuller's view Is information
technology the best industry of all time? Probably, and it is certainly the
fastest growing. However, it is also an industry of rapid change, including
obsolescence for companies which lose their way. Due to the latter risk investment
positions in the IT sector - a Fullermoney secular theme - are best managed
on the basis of their price trends.
Any company which trades to the left of a rising 200-day moving average is at least a hold, provided it does not accelerate too high above its MA at which point one should consider taking some profits. High-probability buying opportunities occur on breaks above the MA and also following mean reversion which holds above a rising MA. Sell signals occur on historically extreme overextensions above a rising MA, or on breaks beneath the MA which then turns downwards.
You can see these variable signals on 10-year charts of Apple, IBM, Google and most other interesting shares. Technically, lengthy trading ranges such as we have seen with Google over the last year are always more difficult to deal with than trending markets. Nevertheless, lengthy trading ranges in all but zombie markets, which Google certainly is not, are eventually resolved by significant trending moves. Google's rising lows, provided they persist, suggest that the next important breakout will be to the upside.
The use of the MA and price action as described above, best seen in perspective on weekly charts, is a template for medium to longer-term timing decisions in other markets as well.