Informative Uranium Report
Comment of the Day

February 01 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Informative Uranium Report

My thanks to a subscriber for this detailed report on developments in the nuclear power industry.

David Fuller's view My view - Note all the interest and activity that is taking place, in contrast to what we saw only five years ago.

Note also comments by China's National Energy Administration (NEA) and China's safety regulator, the National Nuclear Safety Administration (NNSA). Both warn about too rapid nuclear expansion jeopardising quality and safety.

I regard nuclear power as the best energy story for at least the next twenty years. It is interesting today because the next big expansion in nuclear power, led by China and India, is only just getting underway. There will be ebbs and flows, as with all secular themes, and these will include some inevitable setbacks and delays, not least those caused by recessions.

However, the only factors which could drastically delay the industry's development, in my view, would be a serious accident or a particularly severe global recession. We live in an uncertain and dangerous world so both are possible, although hopefully, these will remain outliers and therefore acceptable risks. In the event of recession, we should at least have some prior warning.

My personal strategy for participating in the nuclear industry is via the uranium mines and funds, the latter preferably being investment trusts (closed-end funds). As with any secular bull trend, the best time to buy in my view is during setbacks. There are likely to be many setbacks and some will be extremely sharp, as this is still a fledgling industry relative to what we are likely to see twenty years from now.

My current investments in uranium are via the giant, diversified miners BHP Billiton (BLT LN) and Rio Tinto (RIO LN), plus the BlackRock World Mining Trust (BRWM LN), all of which I have held for many years. I regard these as conservative, blue-chip holdings and uranium is only a small portion of their overall presence in the mining industry. Nevertheless, Rio and BHP are among the largest, if not the largest, uranium producers. Naturally both are well represented in BRWM.

Among the 'pure' uranium plays, the largest producer is Cameco (CCO CN). I have maintained an investment in this share for several years and it is finally performing once again. I also regard Cameco as a conservative play, relative to other uranium miners. Among the smaller, 'pure' uranium plays in my portfolio are Denison Mines (DML CN), which I commenced buying in 2H 2010 within the base and more recently in the first step above the base which may now have been completed. I also invested in the uranium share investment trust, Geiger Counter (GCL LN) last month.

All of these positions are now in my personal top-10 (by weighting) investment holdings.

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