Industrial Metal Prices
Comment of the Day

March 17 2010

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Industrial Metal Prices

Industrial metals prices have firmed in tandem with other 'risk assets' since February and nickel is now moving to new recovery highs. While each of the metals needs to be judged on its merits, there remains a high degree of commonality in the sector and the chart action remains bullish.

Eoin Treacy's view Copper pulled back rather violently from its January high, in an example of the volatility the sector is prone to but found support in the region of the 200-day moving average. It has since rallied back to test the psychological $3.50 and a sustained move back below $3.25 would be required to question potential for a successful upside break.

Aluminium pulled back equally sharply from January and is also rallying back towards the recovery highs. It broke upwards from the most recent short-term range toward and a downward dynamic would be required to limit scope for further higher to lateral ranging. Norsk Hydro offers a similar pattern.

Lead also found support in the region of the mean, defined by the 200day moving average, in February and a sustained move below $2100 would be required to question scope for some additional upside.

Zinc continues to post a progression of higher reaction lows, having found support near the mean in February. A sustained move back below $2200 would now be needed to question scope for further higher to lateral ranging.

Nickel ranged from August to February in a relatively gradual mean reversion and broke successfully upwards a month ago. A sustained move back below $20,000 would be needed to question potential for further upside.

Tin found support at the psychological $15,000 in February, which coincided with the mean. It continues to rally back to the test the January high and a downward dynamic would be required to check momentum beyond a brief pause.

These charts suggest that while there remain worries about inventory build up for some metals, the outlook remains bullish and the major consistency of these trends, the progressions of higher major reaction lows, would need to be taken out to question the medium-term bullish outlook.

Back to top