Industrial metal miners
Comment of the Day

September 11 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Industrial metal miners

Eoin Treacy's view Some of the greatest opportunities arise when one can identify an asset class or sector which has been out of favour, written-off as an investment prospect or ignored by the media, that then begins to exhibit relative strength.

As fears of global economic slowdown at a minimum and financial Armageddon at the extreme stalked markets over the last year, the industrial complex fell out of favour with global investors. The grinding pace of China's monetary tightening weighed on commodity demand growth forecasts and expectations deteriorated significantly as prices fell. Everything from heavy machinery to shipping, chemicals and mining pulled back sharply from July 2011 and failed to recover from October when the wider market and particularly the consumer sector picked up.

This underperformance was identified as a symptom of a wider malaise by some analysts who heralded the inevitability of an additional down leg for stock markets. At Fullermoney, while we want to understand problems as they arise, our aim is to remain solution focused. As the risk of a global economic contraction rose, central banks were presented with an increasing incentive to ease policy. The ECB's bond buying program, China's increased infrastructure spend, the prospect of lower short-term interest rates across Asia and potentially an additional round of quantitative easing from the USA all point towards increases in liquidity which have typically been well received by investors.

Copper bounced in the region of $3 from October and subsequently found support near £3.25 on successive occasions. Despite this loss of momentum the medium-term progression of lower rally highs remains intact. Prices have rallied impressively over the last few weeks and are challenging the yearlong downtrend. A sustained move back below $3.50 would be required to question medium-term scope for continued upside. As the industrial metal that has held up best, copper has been a tailwind for related equities.

Southern Copper has held a progression of higher reaction lows since May and is rallying towards the psychological $37 area. A sustained move above that level would reassert medium-term demand dominance

Grupo Mexico exhibits a rounding characteristic consistent with accumulation as it tests the MXN43 area. A sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question potential for a successful upward break.

Antofagasta has also rallied impressively over the last few weeks and is testing the medium-term downtrend. A sustained move above 1400p would confirm a return to demand dominance beyond the short term. Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc has a similar pattern

As well as forming part of the triumvirate of major iron-ore producers, Rio Tinto with its access to the Oyu Tolgoi mine will be a major copper producer in its own right. It posted an upside key reversal last week and a sustained move below 2650p would be required to question potential for some additional upside.

Cliffs Natural Resources, Anglo American and Teck Resources all also formed upside key reversals last week.

BHP Billiton continues to rebound and a clear downward dynamic would be required to question potential for a successful break above 2000p.

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