Indian sector review
Eoin Treacy's view The Nifty Index retested its 2008 peak in October before entering a period of consolidation. It found at least short-term support in mid February and rallied impressively over the last few weeks. The Index is somewhat overbought in the very short term but a sustained move below 5100 would be required to question the consistency of the medium-term uptrend.
The Bombay Banks Index has outpaced the wider market since bottoming in March 2009. It moved to a new all time high in September and is currently consolidating mostly above the 2008 peak. A sustained move below 11,500 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.
The Auto, Fast Moving Consumer, Consumer Durables and Healthcare sectors are all also notable for having surmounted their 2008 peaks, some by a considerable margin. They share the common characteristic of offering leverage to the growth of the domestic consumer which is a theme evident in most other high growth, high population countries. All of these sectors recently found support in the region of their respective 200-day MAs.
The Technology Index retested its 2008 peak late last year, held the majority of its gain and has rallied towards 4000 again. While somewhat overbought in the very short term, it appears to be only a matter of time before the Index sustains a move to new high ground.
Both the Bombay Small Cap and MidCap indices are underperforming the large cap sectors. Both experienced deep corrections from their respective November highs and while they have rallied well over the last three weeks, more is required if medium-term demand dominance is to be re-established.