India versus China: Buy chaos, sell order
Comment of the Day

March 25 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

India versus China: Buy chaos, sell order

My thanks to a subscriber for this fascinating report by Russell Napier of CLSA. Here is the opening paragraph
As an investment destination, India often suffers in comparison to China, but India's problems come from tackling its most difficult problems first. We now perceive a tipping point where structural impediments have been sufficiently dismantled to permit a new form of economic growth. Many investors ignore the order evolving out of India's apparent chaos, while also failing to accept that China's state-imposed order will one day decompose. This dynamic means that returns from Indian equities are likely to far surpass Chinese equities over the medium and long term.

David Fuller's view One of the most absorbing debates in the markets concerns the long-term potential of investing in China versus India. People who travel to both countries usually return and declare the equivalent of 'game over' - China wins hands down. Other analysts, including as Russell Napier, feel that China is unlikely to develop, as he states: "…a private-sector financial system, democracy, consumerism and strong private-sector property rights without a major crisis."

Many of us find the China versus India debate fascinating. These two countries, with by far the world's largest populations, have experienced the fastest rates of GDP growth for at least a decade, while following very different paths. The more I understand, the less certain I become as to whether or not one of these two giants will emerge as less risky or the better long-term performer.

There are so many known variables to this debate, and yet the outcome may be determined by exogenous factors. My guess is that both countries will continue to develop successfully but in their own very different ways. They may also become mutually dependent on each other, in addition to global events.

The future is uncertain but one has plans. My medium-term objective is to sell equities before the next global bear market becomes obvious. For now I am content to keep a substantial portion of my personal equity investments in both China and India.

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