But Prof. Irudaya Rajan of the Centre for Development Studies is more upbeat. Rajan says that although many have advocated more coercive measures such as those adopted by China with its one-child policy, India has remained 'liberal' in its population policies. 'Look at Kerala. It has managed what China did without coercion,' Rajan says.

In 1979, China had a TFR of 2.8, which dropped to 2.0 in 1991. In contrast, Kerala's TFR of 3.0 plunged to 1.8 in 1991. The state of Tamil Nadu has seen an even more dramatic fall, from a TFR from 3.5 in 1979 to 2.2 in 1991.

The change in Tamil Nadu came despite it suffering many of the ills that plague numerous Indian states-high infant mortality rates and a cultural preference for male children. But this southern state has demonstrated how a holistic approach that takes into account women's education, food security, nutritional health, hygiene and institutional deliveries can have a significant impact.

The 2005 National Rural Health Mission (NRHM), a national effort at ensuring effective healthcare through intervention at the individual, household, community and most critically, at the health system levels, has also had some effect. 'It has brought in synergy in our health care delivery,' says Parul Sharma, programme manager for the Population Fund of India's various projects across India. 'Family planning begins with good health care.'

But some regions will be much more challenging than others. Azad noted that while there has been a declining trend in fertility rates in 14 States, northern and central parts of the country continued to have persistently high TFRs ranging anywhere from 3 to 3.9.

Eoin Treacy's view Personally, I less worried about population growth than some, because as median wealth increases and education, health and nutrition improve, birth rates generally fall of their own accord. However, I am also aware that it is easy to draw simplistic conclusions from demographic data, when the subject is considerably more complex than it might appear. Therefore, I regard demographics as one of a suite of indicators to monitor in tracking development trends.

The demographic dividend associated with a large number of young people entering the workforce and the boost this gives to productivity is a well recognised factor in the development of a number of countries. Urbanisation is an abiding theme as millions of young people leave their agrarian roots and move to cities in search of better opportunities. India is well placed to benefit from these circumstances but will need to implement the necessary reforms to educate, feed and employ its people. Infrastructure development remains a necessary condition if this is to occur and India needs to focus on its attention on reform if it is to achieve its long-term development aims.