Incredible markets
Comment of the Day

September 12 2023

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Incredible markets

Thanks to a subscriber for this thought-provoking article by Charles Gave. Here is an English translation:

What are these risks?

There is one and only one: that the dividends paid by the companies that make up the S&P 500 index do not collapse, as happened from 1929 to 1934.

And so, for those who think that capitalism is finally going to experience its great final crisis, it is better to have gold.

But in the event that this dear system of exploitation of man by man were to survive as it has always done throughout history, well, I could live to be two hundred years old without any problem, my capital remaining mine.

Which is not nothing.

But the value of my capital can vary very greatly, which I don't care about as only the dividend payments matter to me.

Today, transforming my gold into shares is almost indifferent to me.

Let's imagine that in the coming months, the stock market falls by 50%, that gold stays where it is, that the yield therefore increases from 1.7% to 3.4% and that the ratio goes from 1 to 1.5.

At that point, I can sell half of my gold and buy the equivalent in shares, which allows me to double my annual income.

If the ratio passes, after a fall in gold from 1 to 0.5, on the other hand, I must sell my shares to buy gold.

And this is undoubtedly why the ratio has oscillated between 1.5 and 0.5 for a century and a half.

Eoin Treacy's view

Gold does best when the stock market’s performance is nondescript, real rates are trending lower and the US dollar is weak. That is not generally the best time for the earnings yields to grow because secular bears generally mean excesses from the previous stock market bull cycle are being unwound.

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