How is Asia performing in this current period of heightened volatility?
Comment of the Day

August 15 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

How is Asia performing in this current period of heightened volatility?

Eoin Treacy's view Veteran subscribers will be well acquainted with our affinity for Asia's growth dynamos. For the first time in centuries the world's major population centres are also its major growth engines. This is occurring not least because of improving standards of economic, fiscal, corporate and civil governance. This economic evolution has raised hundreds of millions out of poverty and into the middle classes. Progressing economies in the region tend to have low personal and government debt, current account surpluses, strong growth, central banks that demonstrate an anti-inflation bias and a thriving consumer culture.

Following the credit crisis, the ASEAN region in particular, was an upside leader. Markets such as Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia were among the first to bottom, break out of their respective bases and posted some of the best absolute performances. Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand found at least short-term support in the region of their respective 200-day MAs last week and rallied impressively. Malaysia posted a somewhat deeper reaction but has also bounced impressively. Nevertheless, time is required for these indices to demonstrate support building is getting underway. They remain in medium-term uptrends but continued outperformance would be tested by another sell-off on Wall Street.

South Korea shared the consistency of some of the above markets until two weeks ago but has experienced a much sharper reaction. This has been by far the largest pullback since 2008. Such has been the extent of the decline that investor sentiment will in all likelihood have been heavily impacted. As with just about every other market there is scope for an additional short covering rally but significant support building as well as a sustained move back up into the overhead range and breakout to new recovery highs will be required to confirm a return to medium-term demand dominance.

Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong's Hang Seng and H-Shares underperformed the above markets for the last year and broke downwards from relatively lengthy ranges. They need to succeed in pushing back up into those congestion areas to offset current potential for some additional lower to lateral ranging.

India encountered resistance in the region of the 2008 peak in November and has posted an unbroken progression of lower rally highs since. It did not pull back as violently as the above indices last week but has not rallied either. A sustained move back above 19,000 would be required, at a minimum, to break the medium-term downtrend.

China's Shanghai A-Share was an initial leader following the credit crisis in 2008. However, the release of the government's previously non-tradable shares, tightening of monetary policy following the unprecedented stimulus package as well as measures to cool the housing market have weighed on the Index. It has been drifting lower since mid-2009 and while valuations are historically attractive a catalyst such as easier monetary policy is likely required to reinvigorate investor interest.

Higher wage demands remain a factor across Asia. In tandem with impressive economic growth and commodity price rises this has fuelled inflationary expectations. Central banks across the region have been raising interest rates. These Chinese and Indian yield curve spreads depict the extent of that tightening. An easing of this monetary pressure is likely required to further fuel investor risk appetite.

Back to top