Highest correlation among biggest 250 US stocks since 1987
Comment of the Day

September 09 2011

Commentary by David Fuller

Highest correlation among biggest 250 US stocks since 1987

David Fuller's view I received a call from a journalist in Moscow this afternoon who asked for my comments on a report, from JPMorgan, as I recall.

I have not seen the report but apparently the 250 biggest S&P 500 stocks had a correlation in directional price moves of 81% in August. I was also told that this was way above the historical average of approximately 30% and the highest since October 1987's 88% when the stock market crash occurred.

I was asked if investors had given up on fundamentals and were just concentrating on very short-term momentum trading? I said it had almost nothing to do with investors. Instead, it was caused by high-frequency trading.

In other words, the terminator machines are in charge and not just in US large-cap stocks. Similarly high correlations have been evident in a number of other stock markets and also commodities, bonds and currencies.

It is about time regulators did something about it, because high-frequency trading is destabilising, predatory and involves front-running. Nevertheless exchanges love it because the increased turnover boosts their bottom line.

High-frequency trading has nothing to do with the formation of capital, which is the main reason for markets. It does not require the imagination of a science fiction writer to realise that, unchecked, this practice will end badly.

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