Hedge Fund Places Faith in Euro Zone
Comment of the Day

July 23 2012

Commentary by David Fuller

Hedge Fund Places Faith in Euro Zone

This is an interesting article by Nelson Schwartz for The New York Times. Here is a sample:
Now, even as Europe's economic problems worsen and the markets punish giants like Spain and Italy, Mr. Lasry is betting on a long-term comeback for the Continent. This month, his hedge fund, Avenue Capital, finished raising nearly $3 billion for a fund that will invest in the debt of troubled European companies.

He has committed roughly $75 million of his own money to the new fund. That's still a small part of his estimated $1.3 billion fortune, but Mr. Lasry is among a coterie of hedge fund and private equity managers who are gambling that the euro zone will stay intact and revive over the long run.

Besides Avenue, Blackstone and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts plan to buy assets in Europe and in some cases already have done so, as have other well-known money managers like Leon Black of Apollo Global Management.

Not that Mr. Lasry is expecting a quick turnaround for Europe. "It's not a three-month bet or a six-month bet," he said. "It's a three- to five-year bet."

Last week, renewed worries about Spain's ability to keep borrowing sent stocks in Europe tumbling and sparked about a 1 percent decline Friday on Wall Street, though the major United States indexes were up slightly for the week. Mr. Lasry and Richard P. Furst, a senior portfolio manager at Avenue who directs the European strategy, say they expect worries about the Continent to keep rattling the markets, creating buying opportunities for the new fund.

So far, Mr. Lasry and Mr. Furst have put 25 percent to 30 percent of the fund to work, deploying an additional 5 percent or so each month.

"We could invest the whole fund today but you want to average in," said Mr. Furst. "There will be relief rallies, but when the fear comes back in, we buy."

The two money managers are using the broader fears about Europe to load up on troubled debt of companies in healthier countries in the region. The biggest chunk of the new fund's assets have been invested in Britain, followed by France, with purchases in Sweden and other northern European nations, as well.

They are avoiding Greece, the country where the euro zone crisis began, and the home of one of their more notable mistakes, a losing bet in 2010 on the debt of a Greek casino operator in an earlier European fund. That position has steadily lost value as Greece's outlook has deteriorated. Mr. Lasry and Mr. Furst are also steering clear of troubled giants like Spain and Italy.

Instead, they see opportunity as banks in Europe come under pressure from regulators to shrink their balance sheets and unload debt at deep discounts. Financial institutions also are focusing on home markets, prompting Italian and Spanish banks, for example, to sell off debt from other countries.

David Fuller's view I believe Warren Buffett is doing the same thing, on the basis that whatever happens to the euro, Europe will still be there.

Wealth is created in down markets and realised in up markets.

(See also Email 2 below.)

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