Healthcare system to get 400b yuan injection
Comment of the Day

September 05 2012

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Healthcare system to get 400b yuan injection

Thanks to a subscriber for this interesting article by Liu Jie for the China Daily. Here is a section:
"Prevention and control of chronic diseases will be one of the seven top tasks of China's medical care reform by 2020," said Health Minister Chen Zhu.

The central government will invest a total of 400 billion yuan by 2020 in the seven key projects, which also involve improvements to the grassroots healthcare system, psychological disease prevention, the construction of a digital public health information network, medical device innovation, the development of traditional Chinese medicine, and the training of general practitioners.

According to the ministry, 85 percent of deaths in China are caused by chronic diseases, with expenditure on the treatment of these accounting for 69 percent of China's total healthcare costs last year.

Eoin Treacy's view The increase in chronic diseases is a regrettable symptom of improving standards of living and greater calorie consumption. The growth in demand for pharmaceuticals, facilities and machines goes hand in hand with greater disposable income and longer life spans. I reviewed companies that may benefit from this trend in Comment of the Day on Thursday but the health sectors of a number of Asian countries are also likely to benefit. (Also see Comment of the Day on July 12th).

The Chinese CSI 300 Healthcare Index outperformed spectacularly between late 2008 and late 2010 before trending lower until the beginning of this year. It has held a progression of higher or equal reaction lows for the last eight months and rallied impressively today from the most recent. A sustained move below 3400 would be required to question medium-term potential for continued higher to lateral ranging.

The S&P/ASX Healthcare Index rallied to break a three-year progression of lower rally highs in April and has since extended its advance to post new all time highs. While somewhat overbought in the short-term, a sustained move below 9500 would be required to question medium-term upside potential.

The Indian, Thai and Singaporean healthcare sectors are also notable for their medical tourism industries. The Bombay Healthcare sector completed an 18-month consolidation in June and continues to extend its breakout. While increasingly overbought in the short term, a sustained move back below the 200-day MA would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

The Thai Healthcare sector remains in an impressive uptrend and a sustained move below 2225 would be required to question medium-term scope for additional upside.

The Singaporean Healthcare sector has been largely rangebound since 2010 and will need to sustain a move above 1400 to confirm a return to medium-term demand dominance.

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