Greece Moves to January Vote With Rescue Lifeline at Stake
Comment of the Day

December 29 2014

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Greece Moves to January Vote With Rescue Lifeline at Stake

This article by Eleni Chrepa and Paul Tugwell for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

“These elections will be a struggle between fear for euro exit and anger against austerity,” George Pagoulatos, professor of European politics and economy at the Athens University of Economics and Business, said by phone. “The government will be emphasizing the risks associated with Syriza’s anti-bailout stance and Syriza will try to convince voters that it can offer a viable alternative, without endangering the country’s euro membership.”

The trigger for the elections was the failure at the third and final attempt of Samaras’s bid to push through his nominee for president, Stavros Dimas. Dimas attracted the support of 168 lawmakers in the 300-seat chamber, short of the 180 votes required. Under the constitution, the legislature must now be dissolved and a date for elections set. Samaras said he’ll meet tomorrow with the incumbent president, Karolos Papoulias, and ask for the election to be held on Jan. 25. That’s just weeks before Greece’s 240 billion-euro ($293 billion) bailout expires.

The International Monetary Fund, one pillar of the so- called troika of international creditors that includes the European Commission and the European Central Bank, said in an e- mailed statement that Greece faces “no immediate financing needs.”

Eoin Treacy's view

Turning from being a party of protest to coping with the challenge of wielding power tend to make or break political parties. Populism and tapping into widespread discontent with the austerity of the troika’s bailout have propelled Syriza to a dominant position in the polls but it is still very much open to question what they will do in the event they win next month’s election.

Bond investors don’t appear willing to wait around to find out. Greek 10-year yields have risen from 5.5% to 9.6% since September and a sustained move below the 200-day MA would be required to question current scope for additional upside.

Meanwhile German Bund yields continue to compress.

The Greek ASE Index has pulled back sharply this month and closed well off its low today. While there is some scope for steadying, a sustained move back above 1000 will be required to question medium-term scope for additional lower to lateral ranging.

Three years on from the Eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis, a fresh default by Greece is unlikely to have the same surprise impact as it did in 2010 and 2011. The banking sector has had time to sanitise exposure to Greece but is still faced with a deflationary environment across much of the region. With the ECB’s decision on whether to implement a €1 trillion quantitative easing program and the Greek election both due in late January it’s likely to be an active month.

The Euro Stoxx Banks Index drifted for much of 2013 and retested its October low two weeks ago. A sustained move above 140 will be required to break the progression of lower rally highs and begin to suggest a return to demand dominance beyond the short term. 

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