Gold mining investors in particular seeking better returns
Comment of the Day

December 19 2011

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Gold mining investors in particular seeking better returns

This article by Clara Ferreira-Marques for Reuters may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
According to Deutsche Bank research published on Friday, which considers the cumulative benefits since the start of the metal price boom in 2006, shareholder returns for a basket of the four major diversified miners are up 174 percent.

That compares with a 447 percent increase in the amount paid to governments in taxes and royalties, and a 210 percent increase in average salaries paid to staff.

"As the mining industry embarks on a breathtaking capex program... owners/equity holders should rightfully be asking whether they have had commensurate returns on their current investment, before embarking on more," Deutsche analysts said.

"Our view is that they have not."

Mining companies typically allocate excess cash first to organic growth, then to growth by acquisition. Only after that do they consider returning cash to shareholders. This is in large part because of miners' need to keep replenishing their asset base, so depleted mines can be replaced.

But with the cost of developing new mines increasing -- not least because of lower grades in some metals and more difficult operating environments -- and prices expected to ease over the long term, investors are asking whether they should be getting a larger share of the surplus instead of seeing cash automatically invested in organic growth.

The top five London-listed miners have capex plans totalling more than $110 billion from 2012 to 2014.

Eoin Treacy's view Sentiment towards gold miners improved over the last few months as high gold prices flattered quarterly results. However they have not been immune from the declines posted by gold over the last few weeks. The NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index has returned to the lower side of the yearlong range and will need to post an upward dynamic similar to those posted on previous retests of the 500 area to question potential for a downward break.

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