Gold Falls as Haven Demand Ebbs; Syrian Tensions Subside
Comment of the Day

September 12 2013

Commentary by David Fuller

Gold Falls as Haven Demand Ebbs; Syrian Tensions Subside

Here is most of Bloomberg's short report by Nicholas Larkin
Gold prices fell to the lowest in almost three weeks after President Barack Obama asked Congress to delay a vote on U.S. military action against Syria, diminishing demand for haven assets.

Obama said yesterday he would prefer a peaceful solution to the Syrian conflict and that he saw "encouraging signs" of diplomacy ending the confrontation. Last month, gold jumped 6.3 percent partly amid concern that political tension in the Middle East would boost crude-oil prices, damping the economy and stoking inflation.

"The likelihood of a U.S. military attack on the Syrian regime continuing to decrease is very bearish for safe-haven assets like gold," Jim Wyckoff, a senior analyst at Kitco Inc., a research company in Montreal, said in a report. "There is an increase in investor risk appetite worldwide."

Futures have dropped 19 percent in 2013 as some investors lost faith in the metal as a store of value amid an equity rally and low U.S. inflation. The price will extend a slump into next year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.

"Gold prices have started to decline with the declining probability of a military intervention," Goldman said in a report before Obama's address. "We continue to expect that gold prices will decline into 2014 on the back of an acceleration in U.S. activity and a less accommodative monetary-policy stance."

David Fuller's view Today's sharp fall in gold bullion (weekly & daily) showed the first evidence of climactic activity, no doubt helped by Goldman Sachs' bearish comments above. Short-term Stochastic indicators are now oversold as you can see on the daily graph. (Note: subscribers can adjust the time series for these Stochastics in the Library, if they wish to, by clicking on the Charting function in the grey bar above the graph.)

We should find out over the next two to three months if gold reached a sustainable low at $1182.6 on 28th June. I have been expecting a right-hand base extension phase but I would not pre-empt this possibility without technical evidence because Goldman's view will obviously be an influence. Instead, I would watch for evidence of a loss of downside momentum, including an upward dynamic as we have seen before most of the better technical rallies.

This second report by Nicholas Larkin: Silver Slumps Most in Nine Weeks on Syria Talks, Demand Concern, may also be of interest.

Silver (weekly & daily) trades like high-beta gold and here also we see the first evidence of climactic selling. As with gold, watch for a loss of downside momentum, followed by an upward dynamic for evidence of the next rally. If we are in a base extension phase, several months of ranging could easily be seen, featuring mostly a process of sideways to gradually higher reaction lows.

Back to top