Gold: Dividing up our forecast
Comment of the Day

July 15 2022

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Gold: Dividing up our forecast

Thanks to a subscriber for this note from UBS which may be of interest. Here is a section:

Historically, gold prices have often come under pressure in the early stages of a slowdown as central bank policy is still tightening or is tight and real interest rates are rising. Of course, this dynamic reverses when policy rates are cut. We expect a further lift to real interest rates this year, particularly as inflationary risk fades in 2H22. As such, additional liquidation of exchange-traded funds can be expected. We advise protecting the downside to longer-term holdings in the yellow metal into year-end. However, we see opportunities to be more positive though 2023 as the Federal Reserve pivots to an easier stance and the US dollar weakens.  

Eoin Treacy's view

Gold is often regarded a perpetual zero coupon bond. It therefore thrives in an increasingly negative real interest rate environment and struggles when a rates trend towards positive real rates.

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