Gold gained ground this quarter as world equities plunged and doubts stacked up about the pace of economic growth in 2019. A weakening dollar in December aided the rally amid expectations the Federal Reserve will dial back the pace of rate increases next year. That’s also helped to boost holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded funds.
“For gold prices, I think there is upside to be seen in 2019,” Jingyi Pan, market strategist at IG Asia Pte., told Bloomberg TV on Monday, citing prospects for fewer tightening moves from the U.S. central bank. “It does look like one where we will see a slackening of expectations in Fed hikes.”
The big picture is the world’s governments have a lot of debt and the rise of populism is burnishing the attraction of fiscal stimulus. That is likely to put downward pressure on fiat currencies, with no country wanting a strong one. For a monetary metal that cannot simply be lent into existence that’s potentially very good news.
Gold sold off aggressively in the middle of the year but has recouped more than half that decline over the course of the last few months. By finding support in the region of the late 2016 lows the three-year range remains intact as the price rallies back towards the upper side.