Global chart review
Comment of the Day

May 18 2010

Commentary by David Fuller

Global chart review

Price charts are our reality check and you will find all of the important ones in the Fullermoney Chart Library. This feature highlights changes of potential significance and interest.

David Fuller's view Ted Spread - This short-term increase shows that banks are now more wary of lending to each other than during the previous correction which ended in early February. However, this is currently far from the crisis-signalling levels that were building up from mid-2007.

OIS - The chart for 3-month Overnight Indexed Swaps shows a similar change to the Ted Spread.

USA's S&P 500 Diversified Financials (S5DIVF) are underperforming and tested their May 6th low yesterday. A close back above 340 is required to reaffirm support near the February low but a breach of that lower level for more than a day or two would confirm additional deterioration.

Euroland's Euro STOXX Bank Index (SX7E) has been dragged down by the Southern European banks and needs to hold above this month's earlier low near 167 to stem the bearish outlook.

UK's FTSE 350 Bank Index (F3BANK) remains rangebound but must hold above the February low near 4300 to avoid potentially significant pattern deterioration.

France's CAC 40 (CAC) plunged beneath its MA and also the February low before steadying from the upper-side of its base formation. It needs to hold above its May 7th low to avoid a further test of underlying trading. Conversely, a move back above 3800 is required to indicate a potentially significant downside failure and to regain the earlier upward bias.

Switzerland's SMI has seen less technical damage than CAC but the correction following mid-April's upside failure is considerably larger than others during the previous recovery - a characteristic shared by many other stock market indices. Consequently it now needs to remain above lateral trading near 6200 and push back over 6600 to revive the improve the technical outlook.

Denmark's KFX (weekly & daily) and Sweden's OMX (weekly & daily) remain among Europe's stronger indices but here too bigger and faster corrections than seen previously, including a weekly key reversal for KFX, have broken the previously ranging uptrend consistency. Here also the May 7th plunge lows need to hold, followed by eventual moves to new highs to reaffirm the uptrends.

Australia's AS51 (weekly & daily) is barely steady near the February and May 7th lows and a close above 4665 is required to question the current downside bias. The AS51FIN is very similar (weekly & daily) and requires a close above 4690 to remove pressure from the range lows.

Hong Kong's HSI (weekly & daily) is pressuring the February low just beneath the psychological 20,000 level and the MA is also losing upside momentum. An upward dynamic is the minimum required to check this decline beyond a brief pause and to reaffirm support near current levels.

This review will continue tomorrow.

Back to top