Gilt Yields Rise Most in 6 Weeks on U.S. Payrolls, U.K. Service
Comment of the Day

May 03 2013

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Gilt Yields Rise Most in 6 Weeks on U.S. Payrolls, U.K. Service

This article by Lucy Meakin and Lukanyo Mnyanda for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section
The move up in yields is on the back of the non-farm payrolls and I guess in particular the unemployment rate dropping again,” said Elisabeth Afseth, a fixed-income analyst at Investec Bank Plc in London. “In the U.K., the data's been a little bit better. It's not the kind of background for testing new lows in yield.”

The 10-year gilt yield climbed eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 1.71 percent at 2:48 p.m. London time, the biggest intraday increase since March 20. The 1.75 percent bond maturing in September 2022 fell 0.72, or 7.20 pounds per 1,000-pound face amount, to 100.38.

Eoin Treacy's view Government bond yields have displayed a high degree of commonality over the last two months as yields contracted amid speculation that the global economic outlook was deteriorating. Today's rather positive US unemployment data, the UK's avoidance of a triple dip recession, the continued commitment of the ECB to liquidity provision and Japan's newly minted anti-deflationary credentials have contributed to a moderation in investor appetite for bonds.

US Treasuries yields found support this week above 1.6%. UK Gilts have been ranging above 1.6% since early April and firmed from that level again this week. German Bund yields had returned to test the 2012 lows near 1.1% and firmed today. The Canadian 10-year yield also firmed from an area of previous support today.

The Swiss 10-year yield has compressed from 0.8% in March to test the 0.55% where it steadied today. A break in the progression of lower rally highs, currently near 0.6% would be required to challenge the consistency of the two-month downtrend.

Australian 10-year yields have fallen to test the 3% area which represents a potential area of support.

New Zealand 10-year yields have fallen for 8 consecutive weeks to post new all-time lows. Considering the oversold condition and the commonality of yields rallying in many of the above markets, the potential for a reversion towards the mean has increased.

Japanese yields rebounded from the April lows to range mostly below 0.6%. However a sustained move above the 200-day MA, currently near 0.7% would be required to confirm a change in the overall trend of compression.

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