Geopolitical Outlook 2012-2013: Does Anything Stay the Same?
Thanks to a subscriber for this interesting report by Frank Kelly for Deutsche Bank discussing potential political risks that may be pertinent for later this year.
Eoin Treacy's view Perhaps the most pressing political event at present is the fact that just about every significant European politician has just gone on vacation. Last year, short sellers took advantage of this one-month window to initiate a short sharp decline.
Mario Draghi's announcement today that the ECB stands ready to take all necessary steps to defend the currency is in all likelihood aimed at reducing the risk of just such an outcome. If the bearish case is to prove credible, a minimum requirement would be a break in the short-term progression of higher reaction lows for the majority of stock markets.