In sum, both the benefits and costs of non-traditional monetary policies are uncertain; in all likelihood, they will also vary over time, depending on factors such as the state of the economy and financial markets and the extent of prior Federal Reserve asset purchases. Moreover, non-traditional policies have potential costs that may be less relevant for traditional policies. For these reasons, the hurdle for using non-traditional policies should be higher than for traditional policies. At the same time, the costs of non-traditional policies, when considered carefully, appear manageable, implying that we should not rule out the further use of such policies if economic conditions warrant.
Eoin Treacy's view While this speech did not go so far as to say that the Fed will embark on a fresh round of monetary easing, it certainly does not preclude the possibility. With the ECB embarking on its own bond buying program and Chinese economic weakness increasing the possibility of monetary accommodation, the flow of liquidity to the global economy is unlikely to be impaired.
Gold found support today in the region of the upper side of the underlying trading range and the psychological $1600. A countermanding downward dynamic would now be required to question potential for some additional upside. Silver, platinum and palladium also rallied impressively.
The S&P500 continues to pause in the region of the March peak and bounced again today from the 1400 level. A sustained move below the 200-day MA, currently near 1345, would be required to begin to question medium-term scope for continued higher to lateral ranging.
Brent Crude has formed a reaction that is relatively similar sized to that posted in July and found support above $110 today. A sustained move below that level would be required to question potential for some additional upside.
US Treasuries continue to rebound, having found support near 145 and the upper side of the underlying trading range. While the peak near 153 may offer some resistance, a clear downward dynamic will be required to check momentum beyond a brief pause.