Forecasting the US elections
Comment of the Day

June 24 2020

Commentary by Eoin Treacy

Forecasting the US elections

This article from the Economist may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Eoin Treacy's view

No President in modern history has been more stock market friendly than Donald Trump. Since he won the election in 2016, the Nasdaq-100 has doubled. The fiscal stimulus, tax cuts and tax holidays on foreign income, regulatory roll backs and championing of the stock market have all contributed to positive returns. The simple fact he has continually pointed to the strength of the market as vindication for his policies is a clear sign of his efforts to boost sentiment.

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